In Nepali politics, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is seen as a shrewd politician. Although the
proverb sounds funny, the meaning of the proverb is serious. Even in the present situation, Oli is
pursuing such cunning politics.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Oli announced that he was seeking a vote of confidence in
parliament. As soon as he announced to take a vote of confidence on April 10, the opposition
party started chanting. Opposition parties have stated they will not run in the by-elections. In this
case, he has surprised everyone by announcing a no-confidence vote before the opposition
proposes a no-confidence vote. Is his announcement really just a vote of confidence or is his
stance different? This has caused confusion in the opposition.
Is it because Oli, who is believed by a majority of MPs, did not believe in himself and tried to get
a vote of confidence? It remains to be seen whether convening a meeting for a vote of confidence
is a ploy or something else. A vote of confidence in Baishakh 27 will either pave the way for the
election Oli wants, or his government will finalize it. A vote of confidence will be held on that
day after the Speaker announces the time.
MPs have to give a majority in favor of Oli’s trust. If the majority does not come, his government
will be in the minority. At present, the House of Representatives has shrunk to 274 members.
Prime Minister Oli needs 136 MPs for a majority. But the CPN-UML has only 121 MPs, so it
needs 15 more MPs for a majority. The CPN-Maoist Center and the Nepali Congress are
preparing a no-confidence motion against him. Therefore, these two parties are unlikely to vote
for him. Even if Rastriya Prajatantrik Party MPs vote, the Oli government is unlikely to get a
majority.
The Janata Samaj Party, on the other hand, is confused about whether to side with the Oli
government. With the exception of the suspended JSP, which has 32 MPs, the chances of voting
for an immediate Oli government are slim. Therefore, the Oli government is unable to get a
majority. This is what the Oli government wants. In the absence of a majority government, the
way will be open for an alternative government. The way will be opened for the President to
form a government with the signature of the majority MPs.
Opposition leaders have been saying that if the Oli government gets a majority of confidence, it
will continue to run with a majority. Prime Minister Oli’s campaign confirms that he is on the
verge of an election, as he has been rumored to have been doing so for months. Pursuant to
Article 100, Clause 1 of the Constitution, the Prime Minister has made provision for taking a
vote of confidence at any time.
